受國內市場需求和價格等影響，在與緬甸、老撾接壤的云南邊境地區(qū)，活牛走私現(xiàn)象屢禁不止，成為口蹄疫傳入我國的主要風險途徑。為分析云南中緬邊境活牛走私傳入口蹄疫的可能性，收集云南邊境地區(qū)活牛非法調入途徑、路線和數(shù)量等信息，利用“情景樹”法建立傳入風險隨機模型進行仿真分析。結果顯示：從云南中緬邊境走私調入1頭牛，口蹄疫傳入我國的概率為0.81%（95%CI，0.43%~1.47%），且每年約有14 017頭（95%CI，7 520~25 660頭）口蹄疫感染牛自中緬邊境走私進入云南??；口蹄疫通過中緬邊境活牛走私傳入我國的風險取決于緬甸北部活牛市場內的口蹄疫流行率。結果表明，云南中緬邊境活牛走私導致口蹄疫傳入我國的可能性不容忽視。建議對緬甸活牛以及過境緬甸活牛入境前進行口蹄疫疫苗免疫，并在云南當?shù)赜行ПO(jiān)管下屠宰；允許從東南亞國家進口符合我國進口檢驗標準的冷凍去骨肉。本研究首次對口蹄疫通過中緬邊境活牛走私傳入我國的風險進行了定量評估，為我國口蹄疫防控提供了重要信息和數(shù)據。
Quantitative Risk Assessment on FMD Introduced into China via Smuggled Live Cattle across China-Myanmar Border in Yunnan Province
As being affected by the need and price in domestic markets，activities of smuggling live cattle have continued in Yunnan frontier areas bordering Myanmar and Laos in spite of repeated prohibition，which have posed an important risk pathway for foot and mouth disease（FMD）to be introduced into China. In order to analyze the probability of FMD introduced into China via smuggled live cattle across China-Myanmar border in Yunnan Province，collect the information concerning the pathways，routes and quantity of illegally imported live cattle，a stochastic model of entry risk was established and analyzed by the“scene tree”. The results showed that when one cattle was smuggled via the border，the probability to introduce FMD into China was 0.81%（95%CI，0.43%–1.47%），what was worse，about 14 017 cattle（95%CI，720–25 660 cattle）infected with FMD were smuggled into Yunnan Province every year；and such risk depended on the prevalence in cattle markets in northern Myanmar. It was concluded that the probability to introduce FMD into China through smuggling live cattle from Myanmar should not be ignored. In view of the above，the live cattle that were from or transit via Myanmar should be vaccinated against FMD prior to entry，and slaughtered under effective supervision by local authorities；and frozen boneless meat that conformed to China's import inspection standards should be allowed to be imported from Southeast Asian countries. In the study，the risk to introduce FMD into China via China-Myanmar border was quantitatively evaluated for the first time，which provided important information and data for the prevention and control of FMD in China.
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